SARS-CoV-2ウイルス、オミクロン株に関するプレプリント。
今リリースされているワクチンに期待はできないようです。
また、オミクロンに対するワクチン効果がマイナスになってしまった調査結果が公表されました。今回はモデルナワクチンを対象としたもので、接種181日後は感染予防が計算上マイナスになってしまうので0%にしてあります。厳しい結果ですね😢https://t.co/LwjoqZSjRR pic.twitter.com/m7Lb3ZlUU0
— Noguchi Akio (@Derive_ip) January 8, 2022
3回接種の効果についても調べていて、10月21日以降に接種した人は63.6%である一方、10月20日以前に接種した人は39.1%だったとのことです。つまり、結構早く効果が減弱するということでしょうか。ちなみにこの表のオッズ比からワクチン効果が計算できるので効果がマイナスであることが確認できます。 pic.twitter.com/GDFHs4UC5J
— Noguchi Akio (@Derive_ip) January 8, 2022
◆Effectiveness of mRNA-1273 against SARS-CoV-2 omicron and delta variants
【medRxiv 2022年1月8日】
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.07.22268919v1
Background The recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant raised concerns around potential escape from vaccine-elicited immunity. Limited data are available on real-world vaccine effectiveness (VE) of mRNA-1273 against omicron. Here, we report VE of 2 or 3 mRNA-1273 doses against infection and hospitalization with omicron and delta, including among immunocompromised individuals.
Methods This test negative study was conducted at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. Cases were individuals aged ≥18 years testing positive by RT-PCR with specimens collected between 12/6/2021 and 12/23/2021 with variant determined by spike gene status. Randomly sampled test negative controls were 5:1 matched to cases by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and specimen collection date. Conditional logistic regression models were used to evaluate adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of vaccination with mRNA-1273 doses between cases and controls. VE(%) was calculated as (1-aOR)x100.
Results 6657 test positive cases (44% delta, 56% omicron) were included. The 2-dose VE against omicron infection was 30.4% (95% CI, 5.0%-49.0%) at 14-90 days after vaccination and declined quickly thereafter. The 3-dose VE was 95.2% (93.4%-96.4%) against delta infection and 62.5% (56.2%-67.9%) against omicron infection. The 3-dose VE against omicron infection was low among immunocompromised individuals (11.5%; 0.0%-66.5%). None of the cases (delta or omicron) vaccinated with 3 doses were hospitalized compared to 53 delta and 2 omicron unvaccinated cases.
Conclusions VE of 3 mRNA-1273 doses against infection with delta was high and durable, but VE against omicron infection was lower. VE against omicron infection was particularly low among immunocompromised individuals. No 3-dose recipients were hospitalized for COVID-19.
Competing Interest Statement
All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf and declare the following: HFT, BKA, YL, LSS, YT, JET, AF, JHK, GSL, SKC, HST, MA, and LQ are employees of Kaiser Permanente Southern California, which has been contracted by Moderna to conduct this study. KJB is an adjunct investigator at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. CAT is an employee of and a shareholder in Moderna Inc. HFT received funding from GlaxoSmithKline and Seqirus unrelated to this manuscript; HFT also served in advisory boards for Janssen and Pfizer. BKA received funding from GlaxoSmithKline, Dynavax, Seqirus, Pfizer and Genentech for work unrelated to this study and has served on advisory boards for GlaxoSmithKline. YL received funding from GlaxoSmithKline, Seqirus and Pfizer unrelated to this manuscript. LSS received funding from GlaxoSmithKline, Dynavax, and Seqirus unrelated to this manuscript. YT received funding from GlaxoSmithKline unrelated to this manuscript. JET received funding from Pfizer unrelated to this manuscript. AF received funding from Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, and Gilead unrelated to this manuscript. JHK received funding from GlaxoSmithKline unrelated to this manuscript. GSL received funding from GlaxoSmithKline unrelated to this manuscript. SKC received funding from Pfizer and Pancreatic Cancer Action Network unrelated to this manuscript. HST received funding from GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, ALK, and Wellcome unrelated to this manuscript. MA received funding from Pfizer unrelated to this manuscript. LQ received funding from GlaxoSmithKline and Dynavax unrelated to this manuscript.