戦争では死人を出させるよりも怪我人や重傷者を出させることで敵を無力化する、みたいな話を小耳に挟んだことがありますが、COVID-19に罹患するのも同じようなものでしょうか？
COVID-19罹患者の1割以上が後遺症に苦しむと言われており、それは当然ながら労働力や人的資本の減少といった社会の根幹を減衰させることに繋がるので、岸田政権が第7波の感染爆発を不作為で放置することは日本の国力を早期に著しく低下させることになるのでしょうね。
【一番厄介】
中程度の無症状感染率が、社会全体の死亡率を最も高く引き上げる可能性があることがモデルで示された、という研究。
Intermediate levels of asymptomatic transmission can lead to the highest levels of epidemic fatalities https://t.co/ux4hAucrDp
— Angama (@Angama_Market) August 3, 2022
◆Intermediate levels of asymptomatic transmission can lead to the highest levels of epidemic fatalities【medRxiv 2022年8月2日】
Abstract
Asymptomatic infections have hampered the ability to characterize and prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 throughout the ongoing pandemic. Even though asymptomatic infections reduce severity at the individual level, they can make population-level outcomes worse if asymptomatic individuals—unaware they are infected—transmit more than symptomatic individuals. Using an epidemic model, we show that intermediate levels of asymptomatic infection lead to the highest levels of epidemic fatalities when the increase in asymptomatic transmission, due either to individual behavior or mitigation efforts, is strong. We generalize this result to include presymptomatic transmission, showing how intermediate levels of non-symptomatic transmission can lead to the highest levels of fatalities. Finally, we extend our framework to illustrate how the intersection of asymptomatic spread and immunity profiles determine epidemic trajectories, including population-level severity, of future variants.
コロナウイルス感染4回目の医師。発症から二週間で熱などは収まったものの、嗅覚依然半分喪失。激しい頭痛、めまいなどが残り、未だ起床出来ず。他の薬との飲み合わせの危険性からAI推奨の薬は摂取できず。感染のたびに予後が悪化していると実感。
— Angama (@Angama_Market) August 3, 2022
10代の子どもも、これまではほぼ無症状感染だったものの、今回の4回目の感染で鬱の後遺症。ただし、飲み合わせの心配がないためAI推奨の薬を摂取して予後は大幅に改善。明日以降別の種類の薬も挑戦。
— Angama (@Angama_Market) August 3, 2022
コロナウイルスは感染するたびに体が慣れるどころか、余力が削られていくことを目の前で実感。感染するたびにダメージが重くなるように。
— Angama (@Angama_Market) August 3, 2022
コロナウイルス感染者の27％が、症状の改善後にリバウンドしたという研究。
Viral and Symptom Rebound in Untreated COVID-19 Infection https://t.co/ehyH9eIsKV
— Angama (@Angama_Market) August 3, 2022
◆Viral and Symptom Rebound in Untreated COVID-19 Infection【medRxiv 2022年8月2日】
Abstract
Background: There are reports of viral RNA and symptom rebound in people with COVID-19 treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. Since the natural course of viral and symptom trajectories of COVID-19 has not been well described, we evaluated the incidence of viral and symptom rebound in untreated outpatients with mild-moderate COVID-19. Methods: The study population included 568 participants enrolled in the ACTIV-2/A5401 platform trial who received placebo. Anterior nasal swabs were collected for SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing on days 0-14, 21 and 28. Participants recorded the severity of 13 targeted symptoms daily from day 0 to 28. Viral rebound was defined as ≥0.5 log10 viral RNA copies/mL increase and symptom rebound was defined as a 4-point total symptom score increase from baseline. Baseline was defined as study day 4 (primary analysis) or 8 days from symptom onset (secondary analysis). Findings: In both the primary and secondary analyses, 12% of participants had viral rebound. Viral rebounders were older than non-rebounders (median 54 vs 47 years, P=0.04). Symptom rebound occurred in 27% of participants after initial symptom improvement and in 10% of participants after initial symptom resolution. The combination of high-level viral rebound to ≥5.0 log10 RNA copies/mL and symptom rebound after initial improvement was observed in 1-2% of participants. Interpretation: Viral RNA rebound or symptom relapse in the absence of antiviral treatment is common, but the combination of high-level viral and symptom rebound is rare. Funding: This study was supported by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; ACTIV-2/A5401 ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT04518410.