SARS-CoV-2 と COVID-19 に関するメモ・備忘録
インドでコロナウイルスに感染して重症化しなかった20-30歳の運動選手を、一度も感染したことのない選手と比較した結果、全体的な体力が著しく低下していたことがわかったという研究。心拍数の戻りやピーク呼気流量は1-2割低下。息止め時間は2-3割以上低下していた。https://t.co/07dKwVn8uL
— Angama (@Angama_Market) October 5, 2023
◆Impact of COVID-19 on Physical Fitness in Central Indian Athletes Aged 20-30 Years: A Cross-Sectional Pilot Study【Cureus 2023年9月28日】
Abstract
Background
Physical fitness is of utmost importance to athletes as it ensures better performance in competitive sports. Athletes who contracted COVID-19 frequently experienced persistent symptoms for weeks or months afterward. Due to the direct effects of COVID-19 infection on pulmonary, cardiovascular, and neurological systems, combined with the negative effects of isolation and inactivity, it has been observed that physical fitness decreases in individuals. This study aimed to evaluate the physical fitness of young athletes in the age group of 20 to 30 years after mild-to-moderate COVID-19 infection and compare them with unaffected athletes of the same age group.
Methodology
A field-based, cross-sectional, comparative study was conducted from July 2022 to August 2022 in Nagpur, India. Physical fitness levels of 50 young athletes in the age group of 20-30 years who never got infected with COVID-19 were compared to 50 athletes with a recent history of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 infection using the Harvard step test, breath-holding test, and peak expiratory flow rate measurement. Participants were included based on COVID-19 diagnosis using standard procedures and confirmation of recovery through negative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction tests.
Results
Overall physical fitness of athletes who suffered from mild-to-moderate COVID-19 infection was significantly less than those who were not infected. Compared to their non-COVID-19 counterparts, the COVID-19-recovered athletes showed reduced physical fitness index (p < 0.0001 for males and p = 0.0003 for females), reduced peak expiratory flow rate (p < 0.0001 for males and p < 0.0001 for females), and reduced breath-holding time (p < 0.0001 for males and p < 0.0001 for females). Conclusions
COVID-19 had a significant impact on various components of physical fitness which may potentially affect the athletic performance and overall well-being of young athletes.
Introduction
The COVID-19 pandemic has not only posed a threat to public health but has also disrupted various aspects of society, including sports and physical activities. Young athletes, who are essential contributors to the sporting world, have been affected by the virus and its associated consequences. There are now consistent reports of athletes reporting persistent and residual symptoms many weeks to months after COVID-19 infection.
The main site of COVID-19 infection is the lungs, as the virus gets into the body through the respiratory pathway. The infection starts spreading in one lung and progressively into another leading to impairment of the lungs to swap oxygen and carbon dioxide. Physical exercise is considered key for its general benefits as well as a method to help airway clearance. All body organs must function properly for good physical fitness; the effects of COVID-19 infection on the lungs may cause complications. As the body’s need for oxygen increases with higher levels of physical activity, a reduction in oxygen consumption may result in decreased physical strength, capability, and endurance. Good physical fitness is the foundation of sports; an athlete with good physical fitness not only improves the efficiency of learning sports abilities but also reduces the risk of injuries and mishaps.
The purpose of this pilot study was to investigate the effects of COVID-19 infection on the physical fitness of young athletes aged 20 to 30 years. By examining the various components of physical fitness, this study aimed to provide preliminary insights into the potential long-term impact of COVID-19 on the athletic performance and overall well-being of this population.
頭が疲れる、という状態は実際には脳がどうなっている状態なのか、というのは実はまだほとんど分かっていないんですが、集中する作業を続けると外側前頭前野でシナプス外にグルタミン酸が滞留し、これが神経伝達物質の伝わりを弱くしているのではないかということが最新の研究で分かってきています。
— Angama (@Angama_Market) October 5, 2023
シナプス外のグルタミン酸は潜在的に毒性を持つため、集中を要する作業を長時間続けて、その後十分な睡眠をとって洗い流さないと、神経変性疾患につながる可能性がある、ということが推論できます。
— Angama (@Angama_Market) October 5, 2023
寝ないで働くとパフォーマンスが出ないというのは根性の問題ではなく、化学の問題ですね。
— Angama (@Angama_Market) October 5, 2023
コロナウイルス長期障害では、自己免疫が自分の脳を標的にして活動するという研究。重度の酸化ストレスによるAOPPやC反応性蛋白が重症倦怠感の4割以上説明できるが、C反応性蛋白は通常は細菌感染で悪化するもので、インフルエンザなどのウイルス感染ではそれほど上昇しないhttps://t.co/Szo1FoK2KH
— Angama (@Angama_Market) October 6, 2023
◆Brain-targeted autoimmunity is strongly associated with Long COVID and its chronic fatigue syndrome as well as its affective symptoms【medRxiv 2023年10月4日】
Abstract
Background Autoimmune responses contribute to the pathophysiology of Long COVID, affective symptoms and myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS).
Objectives To examine whether Long COVID, and its accompanying affective symptoms and CFS are associated with immunoglobulin (Ig)A/IgM/IgG directed at neuronal proteins including myelin basic protein (MBP), myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG), synapsin, α+β-tubulin, neurofilament protein (NFP), cerebellar protein-2 (CP2), and the blood-brain-barrier-brain-damage (BBD) proteins claudin-5 and S100B.
Methods IgA/IgM/IgG to the above neuronal proteins, human herpes virus-6 (HHV-6) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) were measured in 90 Long COVID patients and 90 healthy controls, while C-reactive protein (CRP), and advanced oxidation protein products (AOPP) in association with affective and CFS ratings were additionally assessed in a subgroup thereof.
Results Long COVID is associated with significant increases in IgG directed at tubulin (IgG-tubulin), MBP, MOG and synapsin; IgM-MBP, MOG, CP2, synapsin and BBD; and IgA-CP2 and synapsin. IgM-SARS-CoV-2 and IgM-HHV-6 antibody titers were significantly correlated with IgA/IgG/IgM-tubulin and -CP2, IgG/IgM-BBD, IgM-MOG, IgA/IgM-NFP, and IgG/IgM-synapsin. Binary logistic regression analysis shows that IgM-MBP and IgG-MBP are the best predictors of Long COVID. Multiple regression analysis shows that IgG-MOG, CRP and AOPP explain together 41.7% of the variance in the severity of CFS. Neural network analysis shows that IgM-synapsin, IgA-MBP, IgG-MOG, IgA-synapsin, IgA-CP2, IgG-MBP and CRP are the most important predictors of affective symptoms due to Long COVID with a predictive accuracy of r=0.801.
Conclusions Brain-targeted autoimmunity contributes significantly to the pathogenesis of Long COVID and the severity of its physio-affective phenome.
Introduction
Ongoing neuro-psychiatric symptoms have been reported in a substantial percentage of coronavirus disease (COVID) survivors (Davis, McCorkell et al. 2023). These symptoms encompass chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS), depression, and anxiety persisting for up to 12 months post-recovery, commonly known as “Long COVID disease” (Groff, Sun et al. 2021, Lopez-Leon, Wegman-Ostrosky et al. 2021, Premraj, Kannapadi et al. 2022). Recent data reveal that globally, at least 65 million individuals suffer from Long COVID disease (Davis, McCorkell et al. 2023).
In a recent previous article co-authored by some of the present’s study collaborators, it was observed that CFS and affective symptoms due to Long COVID are predicted by elevated peak body temperature (PBT) and decreased oxygen saturation (SpO2) during the acute phase of illness (Al-Hadrawi, Al-Rubaye et al. 2022). Both PBT and lower SpO2 are indices of the severity of the immune-inflammatory response during acute infection (Al-Jassas, Al-Hakeim et al. 2022). In another article by some of this study’s authors, a validated latent vector could be extracted from the CFS, fibromyalgia, depressive and anxiety symptoms due to acute and Long COVID and this latent construct was named the “physio-affective phenome” of acute COVID-19 (Al-Jassas, Al-Hakeim et al. 2022) or Long COVID (Al-Hadrawi, Al-Rubaye et al. 2022, Al-Hakeim, Al-Rubaye et al. 2022, Al-Hakeim, Al-Rubaye et al. 2022, Maes, Al-Rubaye et al. 2022).
However, there is still much debate on what causes Long COVID disease and the severity of CFS, depression and anxiety symptoms due to Long COVID. In this context, in yet another study, some of the same authors have identified molecular pathways implicated in the onset of symptoms in individuals with Long COVID disease, including activation of immune-inflammatory processes with oxidative and nitrosative stress reactions (Al-Hakeim, Al-Rubaye et al. 2022, Al-Hakeim, Al-Rubaye et al. 2022), increased insulin resistance (Al-Hakeim, Al-Rubaye et al. 2023, Maes, Almulla et al. 2023), decreased tryptophan levels and increased tryptophan catabolites, such as kynurenine (Al-Hakeim, Abed et al. 2023, Al-Hakeim, Khairi Abed et al. 2023). Moreover, a recent meta-analysis reported that Long COVID disease is accompanied by increased C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer, lactate dehydrogenase, leukocytes, lymphocytes, and interleukin (IL)-6 (Yong, Halim et al. 2023).
Recently, Vojdani et al. discovered that Long COVID patients show elevated levels of immunoglobulins (Ig) IgG/IgM directed against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (IgG/IgM-SARS-CoV-2), human Herpesvirus type 6 (HHV-6) and its deoxyuridine 5′-triphosphate nucleotidohydrolase (HHV-6-duTPase) along with IgA/IgM at activin-A (a self-antigen) (Vojdani, Almulla et al. 2023). These findings confirmed previous studies which indicated that Long COVID disease is accompanied by persistence of SARS-CoV-2, reactivation of dormant viruses, and autoimmune reactions against self-proteins (Acosta-Ampudia, Monsalve et al. 2022, Rojas, Rodríguez et al. 2022, Su, Yuan et al. 2022, Vojdani, Vojdani et al. 2023). Importantly, Vojdani et al. were able to predict the Long COVID diagnosis with high sensitivity (78.9%) and specificity (81.8%) based on elevated levels of IgA-activin-A, IgG-HHV-6, IgM-HHV-6-duTPase, IgG-SARS-CoV-2, and IgM-HHV-6, and a factor extracted from all IgA levels to all viral antigens (Vojdani, Almulla et al. 2023).
Neurological disease, which involves both the central and peripheral nervous systems, is observed in more than one-third of patients with COVID-19 and long COVID (Stefanou, Palaiodimou et al. 2022). The entry of SARS-CoV-2 into central nervous system (CNS) cells is facilitated via the engagement of the virus with the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) receptor on the surface of neurons, endothelial and smooth muscle cells of the cerebral blood vessels (Stefanou, Palaiodimou et al. 2022). This entry of the virus, and the entry of T helper (Th)-1 and Th-17 cells, as well M1 macrophage cytokines into the CNS may result in activation of microglia, resulting in neuronal cell damage, the release of neuronal cell antigens, and antibody production (Elizalde-Díaz, Miranda-Narváez et al. 2022, Stefanou, Palaiodimou et al. 2022).
Autoantibodies that are directed to endogenous proteins have been observed in several neuro-psychiatric illnesses which show clinical and pathophysiological features like Long COVID (Morris and Maes 2013, Apostolou, Rizwan et al. 2022, Komaroff and Lipkin 2023). For example, antibodies against synapsin in psychiatric patients are detected in association with increased agitation (Sæther, Vaaler et al. 2019). Increased neurofilament light and P-tau concentrations were established in patients with depression (Al-Hakeim, Al-Naqeeb et al. 2023). Increased levels of IgG directed at myelin basic protein (MBP, essential for the myelin sheath in brain oligodendrocytes) have been identified in bipolar patients (Kamaeva, Smirnova et al. 2022). CFS patients display increased antibodies against a multitude of neuronal proteins including microtubulin-related protein-2, a component of the cytoskeleton in eukaryotic cells (Vernon and Reeves 2005, Morris and Maes 2013).
Numerous studies reported that individuals recovered from COVID-19 (3-12 months after infection) show significant elevations of specific autoantibodies including those against calprotectin, nucleoprotein, whole spike, and spike subunits (Moody, Sonda et al. 2022), ACE2 (Arthur, Forrest et al. 2021), and apolipoprotein A-1 (Apo-A1) (L’Huillier, Pagano et al. 2022). Additionally IgG/IgM against cardiolipin and betaL2 glycoprotein I (Pisareva, Badiou et al. 2023), cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) and tissue transglutaminase (Lingel, Meltendorf et al. 2021) along with IgG against interferon (IgG-IFN), histone and centromere protein were also detected (Rojas, Rodríguez et al. 2022). There is also evidence that the blood-brain-barrier (BBB) is dysfunctional in Long COVID (Krasemann, Haferkamp et al. 2022, Hernández-Parra, Reyes-Hernández et al. 2023). Increased autoantibody titers to BBB proteins such as claudin are observed in Long COVID patients (Fonseca, Filgueiras et al. 2023). In the latter, the severity of illness is associated with increased serum levels of S100B, a danger-associated molecular pattern (DAMP) molecule, suggesting increased BBB permeability and brain damage (Aceti, Margarucci et al. 2020).
However, it is largely unknown whether autoimmune reactions directed against neuronal proteins are a feature of Long COVID disease. Hence, the aim of this study is to examine autoantibodies (IgA/IgM/IgG) directed at MBP, myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG), cerebellar-protein-2, synapsin, tubulin, neurofilament protein (NFP), and BBB-brain damage (BBD) proteins (claudin-5 and S100B) in Long COVID disease. In addition, we employ the precision medicine method (Maes 2022, Maes and Stoyanov 2022) to delineate whether these antibodies can predict CFS and affective symptoms due to Long COVID disease.
生姜の辛味成分の6−ギンゲロールが、好中球がDNAなどで生成する好中球細胞外トラップの形成を防ぎ、コロナウイルス感染に伴って生じる自己免疫炎症を抑える働きをすることが分かったという研究。https://t.co/6qx3CmskcO
— Angama (@Angama_Market) October 6, 2023
◆Ginger intake suppresses neutrophil extracellular trap formation in autoimmune mice and healthy humans【JCI insite 2023年9月22日】
Abstract
We previously reported that treatment of mice with 6-gingerol, the most abundant phytochemical in ginger root, leads to phosphodiesterase inhibition that counteracts neutrophil hyperactivity in models of antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) and lupus. Here, we explored the extent to which oral intake of a whole-ginger extract would similarly impact neutrophils in both autoimmune mice and healthy humans. In vitro, a solubilized ginger extract was able to attenuate neutrophil extracellular trap formation (NETosis) by human neutrophils through a mechanism that was dependent upon the cyclic AMP–dependent kinase, protein kinase A. When mice with features of either APS or lupus were administered a ginger extract orally, they demonstrated reduced circulating NETs, as well as the tempering of other disease outcomes, such as large-vein thrombosis (APS) and autoantibody production (lupus). In a pilot clinical trial, which was validated in a second cohort, daily intake of a ginger supplement for 7 days by healthy volunteers boosted neutrophil cAMP, inhibited NETosis in response to disease-relevant stimuli, and reduced circulating plasma NET levels. In summary, this work demonstrates that ginger intake restrains neutrophil hyperactivity in autoimmune mouse models and that ginger consumption by healthy individuals makes their neutrophils more resistant to NETosis.
Introduction
Chronic, incurable autoimmune diseases such as antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) and lupus are associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and health care costs. Lupus is the prototypical systemic autoimmune disease characterized by autoantibodies against nuclear components, which result in circulating immune complexes that deposit in and damage organs. APS, sometimes presenting in patients with lupus and sometimes as a standalone autoimmune disease, is associated with aberrant innate immune and vascular cell activation resulting in a markedly increased risk of thrombosis in vascular beds of all sizes. While these diseases demonstrate unique clinical phenotypes, there is convincing evidence that both are pathologically driven by a shared mechanism: dysfunctional and exaggerated neutrophil extracellular trap formation (termed NETosis). Through NETosis, neutrophils expel their nuclear chromatin in pro-inflammatory web-like structures that are decorated with potentially toxic granule-derived proteins. Excessive NETosis propels inflammatory and thrombotic cascades, contributing to end organ damage over time and to the pathophysiology of many autoimmune diseases, including APS and lupus.
Recent studies by our group and others have demonstrated that excessive NETosis has the potential to promote breaks in adaptive immune tolerance that result in durable autoantibody formation. At the same time, disease-associated autoantibodies drive further NETosis, thereby setting up a vicious cycle. Our work has further revealed a particularly important role for neutrophils and NETs in the thrombo-inflammatory disease manifestations that are relevant to not only APS and lupus but also other diseases, such as COVID-19. We have also found that targeting NETosis through various mechanisms (neutrophil depletion, deoxyribonuclease, adenosine receptor agonists) mitigates thrombosis in APS models. Safe agents that restrain NETosis in patients might therefore improve outcomes across various autoimmune and inflammatory diseases.
Natural herbs with antiinflammatory properties are potentially untapped resources in our search for agents that can combat pathogenic NETosis. We previously reported that a purified preparation of 6-gingerol, the most abundant bioactive phytochemical in ginger root, inhibited neutrophil phosphodiesterase (PDE) activity, boosting intracellular cyclic AMP (cAMP) levels and thereby counteracting neutrophil hyperactivity in mouse models of APS and lupus. In those experiments, purified 6-gingerol was delivered by intraperitoneal injection. To better understand the potential NET-inhibiting benefits of ginger in humans, studies using an orally administered ginger supplement are needed.
Here, we aimed to validate the effect of ginger on neutrophil activity, using an oral ginger extract and including healthy humans. Such a study can set the stage for the eventual clinical testing of ginger in patients with NET-driven autoimmune diseases, such as lupus, APS, rheumatoid arthritis, vasculitis, and even COVID-19.
16カ国の13000人以上を対象にした調査の結果、持病があり、毎日の睡眠時間が6時間未満の人はコロナウイルス長期障害を負うリスクが約3倍高いことが分かったという研究。https://t.co/5kzJQhb3Ad
— Angama (@Angama_Market) October 6, 2023
※約3倍になることが
— Angama (@Angama_Market) October 6, 2023
◆Habitual short sleepers with pre-existing medical conditions are at higher risk of Long COVID【Journal Clinical Sleep Medicine 2023年10月3日】
Abstract
STUDY OBJECTIVES: Preliminary evidence suggests that the risk of Long COVID is higher among people with pre-existing medical conditions. Based on its proven adjuvant role in immunity, habitual sleep duration may alter the risk for developing Long COVID. The objective of this study was to determine whether the odds of Long COVID are higher amongst those with pre-existing medical conditions, and whether the strength of this association varies by habitual sleep duration.
METHODS: Using data from 13,461 respondents from 16 countries who participated in the 2021 survey based International COVID Sleep Study II (ICOSS II), we studied the associations between habitual sleep duration, pre-existing medical conditions, and Long COVID.
RESULTS: Of 2,508 individuals who had COVID-19, 61% reported at least one Long COVID symptom. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that the risk of having Long COVID was 1.8-fold higher for average-length sleepers (6-9h/night) with pre-existing medical conditions compared to those without pre-existing medical conditions [aOR 1.84 (1.18-2.90), P=0.008]. The risk of Long COVID was 3-fold higher for short sleepers with pre-existing medical conditions [aOR 2.95 (1.04-8.4), P=0.043] and not significantly higher for long sleepers with pre-existing conditions [aOR 2.11 (0.93-4.77), P=0.073] compared to average-length sleepers without pre-existing conditions.
CONCLUSIONS: Habitual short nighttime sleep duration exacerbated the risk of Long COVID in individuals with pre-existing conditions. Restoring nighttime sleep to average duration represents a potentially modifiable behavioral factor to lower the odds of Long COVID for at-risk patients.
何故味覚が無くなるか?
シンプルに味蕾付近で炎症してるっすわ。
という話https://t.co/kTXzuDS8wb— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
相変わらず図だけしか見てないので正確性は保証しない。興味ある人は本文読んでね。
ま、ぱぱっと行こう。茸状乳頭さんをバイオプシー
63wとか書いてあるのでLongCovid患者さん。
赤ドット線が味蕾。ここに感染してるか?は見えないけど、少なくとも茸状乳頭さん表面にまだウイルスいる… pic.twitter.com/aZU0D0Aha4— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
コロナを吐き出さなくなっても舌表面に63weekでも感染してるなら、唾、キスでは結構長く人に感染させれるのでは?と論文と関係ないことを一瞬思う。
戻ろう。
CD8、細胞傷害性Tcellいる。ま、まだそこで感染中なんだからしゃーない。ところで、味細胞って4種類いて、2型が本丸&神経切れば無意味 pic.twitter.com/JRlPeJtpiJ
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
なんだけどね。IL-1b(基本=急性炎症像)、これがLongCovid味覚なし症状の人の茸状乳頭で染まるぜを読み飛ばしつつ、このFig3でつい、アー!って呟いてしまった。
PLCβ2、2型味細胞マーカ、17wでなくて、回復したら戻ってる。
そしてNF-H 、神経繊維切られてる!回復期には戻ってる(緑矢印) pic.twitter.com/MxD8JPcmCy— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
つまり、新型コロナで何故味覚が消失するか?
答え
シンプルに『味』奪いに来てた
(2型味細胞と味神経繊維)という特に複雑な機序ではない結果でした。
個人的にはこの舌サンプルで細胞感染成立するか?(おそらく成立する?だとすれば、キスによる感染成立期間はもっと長い?)の方が
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
気になった。
いや、でも直接味細胞奪いに来てたのすご。
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
◆Long-Term Dysfunction of Taste Papillae in SARS-CoV-2【NEJM Evidence 2023年7月20日】
Abstract
BACKGROUND
We sought to determine whether ongoing taste disturbance in the postacute sequelae of coronavirus disease 2019 period is associated with persistent virus in primary taste tissue.
METHODS
We performed fungiform papillae biopsies on 16 patients who reported taste disturbance lasting more than 6 weeks after molecularly determined severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Then, on multiple occasions, we rebiopsied 10 of those patients who still had taste complaints for at least 6 months postinfection. Fungiform papillae obtained from other patients before March 2020 served as negative controls. We performed hematoxylin and eosin staining to examine fungiform papillae morphology and immunofluorescence and fluorescence in situ hybridization to look for evidence of persistent viral infection and immune response.
RESULTS
In all patients, we found evidence of SARS-CoV-2, accompanying immune response and misshapen or absent taste buds with loss of intergemmal neurite fibers. Six patients reported normal taste perception by 6 months postinfection and were not further biopsied. In the remaining 10, the virus was eliminated in a seemingly random fashion from their fungiform papillae, but four patients still, by history, reported incomplete return to preinfection taste perception by the time we wrote this report.
CONCLUSIONS
Our data show a temporal association in patients between functional taste, taste papillae morphology, and the presence of SARS-CoV-2 and its associated immunological changes. (Funded by Intramural Research Program/National Institute on Aging/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases/National Institutes of Health; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers NCT03366168 and NCT04565067.)
Introduction
We have previously reported that angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, one of the known receptors for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is present on type II taste receptor cells within taste buds embedded in taste papillae. SARS-CoV-2 is known to infect and replicate within these cells during the acute phase of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), likely accounting for complete loss of taste (ageusia), partial loss of taste (hypogeusia), and/or distorted sense of taste (dysgeusia) during the early stages of infection. However, symptoms of altered taste perception may be present in people for several months and in some patients for more than a year following SARS-CoV-2 infection. To study whether the pathology underlying persistent taste symptoms still resides in the primary taste organs, we performed fungiform papillae biopsies from patients who had both a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR+) for SARS-CoV-2 and acute taste disturbance that was followed by lingering taste symptoms. None required hospitalization, and none were prescribed monoclonal antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 or antiviral treatment for their infection. In the biopsy samples, we looked for the presence of virus and hallmarks of pathology that might be linked to taste disturbance. In 10 patients with lingering taste symptoms, we obtained fungiform papillae on multiple occasions allowing us to investigate the pathophysiology underlying their altered taste perception and observe any changes occurring within the fungiform papillae that might correlate with taste alterations. Taste perception in 6 of those 10 patients returned to pre–SARS-CoV-2 levels by the time of their last biopsy.
【42.5%がコロナ後遺症】
メタ解析。
LongCovidまたはPACS(新コロ後遺症)で検索し該当した論文をかなり幅広くひっかけた感のあるメタ解析。
結果、42.5%に起こる。
いや、多いな…
1年後に57.9%https://t.co/qD7ratCKDw— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) February 24, 2023
新コロ後遺症との関連がはっきり有意なものは、今のところ高血圧(32%)だけ。ま、幅広くひっかけたからってのはあるかもしれんし、あと42.5%って数字に引っ張られるよりは、治療が必要なほどの後遺症が何%に起こるか?が大事かもしれん。
あと、表の文字がとても見にくいのなんとかしてくれ。 pic.twitter.com/Lw8XuX3k48
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) February 24, 2023
◆Event Rate and Predictors of Post-Acute COVID-19 Sequalae and the Average Time to Diagnosis in General Population【medRxiv 2023年2月23日】
Abstract
Background Post- COVID-19 sequalae involves a variety of new, returning or ongoing symptoms that people experience more than four weeks after getting COVID-19. The aims of this meta-analysis were to assess the prevalence of Post-Acute COVID-19 sequalae and estimate the average time to its diagnosis; and meta-regress for possible moderators.
Methods A standard search strategy was used in PubMed, and then later modified according to each specific database. Search terms included “long COVID-19 or post-acute COVID-19 syndrome/sequalae”. The criteria for inclusion were published clinical articles reporting the long COVID-19, further, the average time to diagnosis of post-acute COVID-19 sequelae among primary infected patients with COVID-19. Random-effects model was used. Rank Correlation and Egger’s tests were used to ascertain publication bias. Sub-group, sensitivity and meta-regression analysis were conducted. A 95% confidence intervals were presented and a p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Review Manager 5.4 and comprehensive meta-analysis version 4 (CMA V4) were used for the analysis. The trial was PROSPERO registered (CRD42022328509). Results Prevalence of post-acute COVID-19 sequalae was 42.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 36 % to 49.3%). The PACS event rates’ range was 25 % at four months and 66 % at two months and mostly, signs and symptoms of PASC were experienced at three (54.3%, P < 0.0001) to six months (57%, P < 0.0001), further increasing at 12 months (57.9%, P= 0.0148). At an average of two months, however with the highest event rate (66%), it was not significantly associated with PACS diagnosis (P=0.08). On meta-regression, comorbidities collectively contributed to 14% of PACS with a non-significant correlation (Q = 7.05, df = 8, p = 0.5313) (R2=0.14). A cardiovascular disorder especially hypertension as a stand-alone, showed an event rate of 32% and significantly associated with PACS, 0.322 (95% CI 0.166, 0.532) (P < 0.001). Chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD) and abnormal basal metabolic index (BMI) had higher event rates of PACS (59.8 % and 55.9 %) respectively, with a non-significant correlation (P > 0.05). With a significant association, hospital re-admission contributed to 17% (Q = 8.70, df = 1, p = 0.0032) (R2= 0.17) and the study design 26% (Q = 14.32, df = 3, p = 0.0025) (R2=0.26). All the covariates explained at least some of the variance in effect size on PACS at 53% (Q = 38.81, df = 19, p = 0.0047) (R2 analog = 0.53).
Conclusion The prevalence of PACS in general population was 42.5%, of which cardiovascular disorders were highly linked with it with COPD and abnormal BMI also being possible conditions found in patients with PACS. Hospital re-admission predicted highly, an experience of PACS as well as prospective study design. Clinical and methodological characteristics in a specific study contributed to over 50% of PACS events. The PACS event rates ranged between 25 % at four months and 66 % at two months with most signs and symptoms experienced between three to six months increasing at 12 months.
Introduction
Post-acute sequelae of COVID-19, also known as “long COVID,” is used to describe the long-term symptoms that might be experienced weeks to months after primary infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Recent literature suggests that, the syndrome is described by a diverse set of symptoms that persist after a diagnosed COVID-19 infection. This post-acute infection represents a significant challenge for patients, physicians, and society because the causes, patient profile, and even symptom patterns remain difficult to characterize. It may include memory loss, gastrointestinal (GI) distress, fatigue, anosmia, shortness of breath, and other symptoms. PASC has been associated with acute disease severity, further, it is suspected to be related to autoimmune factors, as well as unresolved viral fragments. Post-COVID conditions are found more often in people who had severe COVID-19 illness, but anyone who has been infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 can experience post-COVID conditions, even people who had mild illness or no symptoms from COVID-19. There is no test to diagnose post-COVID conditions, and people may have a wide variety of symptoms that could come from other health problems. This can make it difficult for healthcare providers to recognize post-COVID conditions. Diagnosis is considered based on health history, including if you had a diagnosis of COVID-19 either by a positive test or by symptoms or exposure, as well as doing a health examination. Long COVID may be due to persistent immune disturbances.
Studies of patients who have recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection but have persistent symptoms have ranged widely in size, quality, and methodology, leading to confusion about the prevalence and types of persistent symptoms. SARS-CoV-2 can produce short/long-term sequelae and reports describing post-acute COVID-19 syndrome (PACS) in the general population are increasing, however limited by lack of proper pooled average time estimation for diagnosis or occurrence. Therefore, this review aimed at assessing the prevalence and factors associated with PACS in our cohort of general population.
Long Covidのメタ解析追加https://t.co/swzTxZHFur
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) June 9, 2023
新コロってあまり知られてないけど硝子体液への移行性、武漢株の時から高いよ。
という話をしました。そしてこの画像が衝撃的。
左、未感染(Normal)、右、重症からの生還者(Severe)
もう見た目全然違うほど網膜の血管が失われている pic.twitter.com/oqHLeRa2ah— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) June 25, 2023
こんな感じ。 pic.twitter.com/X52IQOQXdr
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) June 25, 2023
ピンクアイも報告されてたけど、今の流行ってる株大丈夫かな。https://t.co/7LVuTjBLB7
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) June 25, 2023
◆Retinal tissue and microvasculature loss in COVID-19 infection【nature:scientific reports 2023年3月29日】
Abstract
This cross-sectional study aimed to investigate the hypothesis that permanent capillary damage may underlie the long-term COVID-19 sequela by quantifying the retinal vessel integrity. Participants were divided into three subgroups; Normal controls who had not been affected by COVID-19, mild COVID-19 cases who received out-patient care, and severe COVID-19 cases requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission and respiratory support. Patients with systemic conditions that may affect the retinal vasculature before the diagnosis of COVID-19 infection were excluded. Participants underwent comprehensive ophthalmologic examination and retinal imaging obtained from Spectral-Domain Optical Coherence Tomography (SD-OCT), and vessel density using OCT Angiography. Sixty-one eyes from 31 individuals were studied. Retinal volume was significantly decreased in the outer 3 mm of the macula in the severe COVID-19 group (p = 0.02). Total retinal vessel density was significantly lower in the severe COVID-19 group compared to the normal and mild COVID-19 groups (p = 0.004 and 0.0057, respectively). The intermediate and deep capillary plexuses in the severe COVID-19 group were significantly lower compared to other groups (p < 0.05). Retinal tissue and microvascular loss may be a biomarker of COVID-19 severity. Further monitoring of the retina in COVID-19-recovered patients may help further understand the COVID-19 sequela.
Introduction
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus two (SARS-CoV-2). In December 2019, an outbreak of this respiratory disease emerged in Wuhan, China which was declared a pandemic in March 2020 and has affected many lives since then. As of October 17, 2022, the total number of confirmed cases globally per the World Health Organization (WHO) is 621,797,133, with total deaths of 6,545,561.
The virus affects multiple organ systems aside from the respiratory system. The term “long COVID” was introduced only a few months after the outbreak, as patients reported various symptoms that persisted or developed even after recovery from the infection. Douaud, et al. investigated brain changes associated with the virus, and one of their notable findings was a greater reduction in the global brain size. A systematic review performed by Castanares-Zapatero, et al. found that persistent inflammatory processes result in brain microglia activation, as well as pulmonary microvascular damage that may potentially lead to pulmonary hypertension. At the vascular level, the virus promotes an inflammatory state in the vascular endothelium, causing endotheliitis, ultimately leading to a prothrombotic state in the microcirculation. López Reboiro, et al. suggested that von Willebrand factor (vWF) and lupus anticoagulant (LA), in addition to other molecules, play a crucial role in thrombogenesis induced by this virus. Obtaining serum measurements of vWF and LA may predict permanent endothelial damage, leading to long COVID sequelae such as neuropathic pain or neuropsychiatric issues.
In the eye, several works of literature reported various retinal findings after infection with the novel coronavirus. There is some evidence of vascular pathology associated with COVID-19 infection. The most commonly reported ocular manifestations were retinal hemorrhages and cotton wool spots, while the most common vision-threatening manifestation was retinal vein occlusion with macular edema, making this disease vasculopathic in nature. Several case reports have also diagnosed paracentral acute middle maculopathy, a vasculopathy associated with deep retinal microvascular circulation, after COVID-19 infection using optical coherence tomography (OCT). These are all anecdotal case reports, and many of these patients likely had comorbidities that are not described fully in the papers.
OCT Angiography (OCTA) is a non-invasive imaging technique that provides three-dimensional visualization of the retinal vasculature by moving particles, such as erythrocytes. Although OCTA has been used in assessing retinal vasculature in patients infected with COVID-19, some of these studies included patients with systemic confounders, including hypertension and diabetes mellitus, which are known to affect the retinal microvasculature.
The purpose of this study was to investigate the retinal thickness, volume, and vessel density of patients who were diagnosed and recovered from COVID-19 using Spectral Domain OCT (SD-OCT) and OCTA and to compare findings with a control group who had not been infected. We aim to understand the natural course of the ocular findings of this disease. The patients included in this study were carefully selected and had no prior systemic disease that might alter the retinal microvascular architecture.
Nature Review
複数臓器にウイルスが残っていること、LongCovid者では炎症系バイオマーカー高いこと、CD4cellのPD-1増加など認められるがまだまだ何が免疫系のバランスを壊しているか研究が不十分なことなど。
LongCovidに関する現時点のまとめ。https://t.co/9rIjq4Z6w1— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) July 13, 2023
◆The immunology of long COVID【nature reviews immunology 2023年7月11日】
Abstract
Long COVID is the patient-coined term for the disease entity whereby persistent symptoms ensue in a significant proportion of those who have had COVID-19, whether asymptomatic, mild or severe. Estimated numbers vary but the assumption is that, of all those who had COVID-19 globally, at least 10% have long COVID. The disease burden spans from mild symptoms to profound disability, the scale making this a huge, new health-care challenge. Long COVID will likely be stratified into several more or less discrete entities with potentially distinct pathogenic pathways. The evolving symptom list is extensive, multi-organ, multisystem and relapsing–remitting, including fatigue, breathlessness, neurocognitive effects and dysautonomia. A range of radiological abnormalities in the olfactory bulb, brain, heart, lung and other sites have been observed in individuals with long COVID. Some body sites indicate the presence of microclots; these and other blood markers of hypercoagulation implicate a likely role of endothelial activation and clotting abnormalities. Diverse auto-antibody (AAB) specificities have been found, as yet without a clear consensus or correlation with symptom clusters. There is support for a role of persistent SARS-CoV-2 reservoirs and/or an effect of Epstein–Barr virus reactivation, and evidence from immune subset changes for broad immune perturbation. Thus, the current picture is one of convergence towards a map of an immunopathogenic aetiology of long COVID, though as yet with insufficient data for a mechanistic synthesis or to fully inform therapeutic pathways.
【LongCovidからのFull回復は2年後で7.6%だけでした】
嘘でしょ…?と初見思いましたが、本当みたいです。Full回復の定義は3ヶ月続けて症状報告なし。この7.6%は比較的軽い症状のクラスターに属していました。
また本研究で回復者が少なかった要因として、回復しなかった人達の中に再感染者はいる pic.twitter.com/WvGcTZfvFx— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) July 14, 2023
でしょう。
耳鳴り、神経症状、筋肉痛などを発症時に経験した人はLongCovid リスク高いと。以前別の報告でも1年後に84.9%が症状残ってた。とあるので、LongCovid回復率は低そうです。https://t.co/kqYMOmU2gl pic.twitter.com/OzdFAGJsYd
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) July 14, 2023
◆Course of post COVID-19 disease symptoms over time in the ComPaRe long COVID prospective e-cohort【nature communications 2022年4月5日】
Abstract
About 10% of people infected by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 experience post COVID-19 disease. We analysed data from 968 adult patients (5350 person-months) with a confirmed infection enroled in the ComPaRe long COVID cohort, a disease prevalent prospective e-cohort of such patients in France. Day-by-day prevalence of post COVID-19 symptoms was determined from patients’ responses to the Long COVID Symptom Tool, a validated self-reported questionnaire assessing 53 symptoms. Among patients symptomatic after 2 months, 85% still reported symptoms one year after their symptom onset. Evolution of symptoms showed a decreasing prevalence over time for 27/53 symptoms (e.g., loss of taste/smell); a stable prevalence over time for 18/53 symptoms (e.g., dyspnoea), and an increasing prevalence over time for 8/53 symptoms (e.g., paraesthesia). The disease impact on patients’ lives began increasing 6 months after onset. Our results are of importance to understand the natural history of post COVID-19 disease.
ちょっとだけ更新
T-cell活性化部位を染める全身イメージングPETです。
右下が普通(コロナ感染前)として
aは黒いところが多いでしょ?
って三次元で細かくリンパ節とかみないと生物学的には意味ないんだけど、でも全体像の写真でも見えるくらい差があるじゃん?
新コロそういうとこ嫌いよ… pic.twitter.com/nDVMzQQC99— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) August 2, 2023
でその黒いのを数値化するとこんな棒グラフになるらしい。脊椎、馬尾まで読んだ。あとは気になる方は1個1個翻訳すれば良し。
とりあえずアブスト曰く脊髄系+腸壁。 pic.twitter.com/mhm8qIH9YW— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) August 2, 2023
で、この赤い人達の中にもLongCovid発現した人とそうならずに済んだラッキー回復者といるじゃん?
つーわけで、そこで分けて見てみたよ pic.twitter.com/yt92YsfQ8Z— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) August 2, 2023
すると、筆者らの論旨とは違って申し訳ないけど、俺にはパッと見、あれ?LongCovidとの相関は見えてないじゃん?その症状報告してない薄黄色の人もめちゃTcell異常活性化してるやん?と…
うーん俺はそう思ったり。後は見た人に任せるスタイル pic.twitter.com/xmehMMLWy3
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) August 2, 2023
この論文で大事なのは意外とこっちかも。
筆者らは小腸バイオプシーサンプルから新コロRNAの存在もin sitsuで確認してんだけど、それの最長標本が676日目!!ほぼ2年なかなか細胞の活性化が終わってなくて絶賛感染中っぽい血球プロファイルの話、上でもしてるけど、小腸の細胞のターンオーバー考えて pic.twitter.com/AL3BHIQQEE
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) August 2, 2023
ある意味慢性感染やん。他人に感染性ないだけで、かなり長くコロナにやられているのでは?
(その割に体内循環抗体は無くなって再感染する…ということは…んんんんん?)そんな感想です。(相変わらず+使えないのでだらだら書きました)https://t.co/nryDOUVtdk
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) August 2, 2023
◆Multimodal Molecular Imaging Reveals Tissue-Based T Cell Activation and Viral RNA Persistence for Up to 2 Years Following COVID-19【medRxiv 2023年7月27日】
Abstract
The etiologic mechanisms of post-acute medical morbidities and unexplained symptoms (Long COVID) following SARS-CoV-2 infection are incompletely understood. There is growing evidence that viral persistence and immune dysregulation may play a major role. We performed whole-body positron emission tomography (PET) imaging in a cohort of 24 participants at time points ranging from 27 to 910 days following acute SARS-CoV-2 infection using a novel radiopharmaceutical agent, [18F]F-AraG, a highly selective tracer that allows for anatomical quantitation of activated T lymphocytes. Tracer uptake in the post-acute COVID group, which included those with and without Long COVID symptoms, was significantly higher compared to pre-pandemic controls in many anatomical regions, including the brain stem, spinal cord, bone marrow, nasopharyngeal and hilar lymphoid tissue, cardiopulmonary tissues, and gut wall. Although T cell activation tended to be higher in participants imaged closer to the time of the acute illness, tracer uptake was increased in participants imaged up to 2.5 years following SARS-CoV-2 infection. We observed that T cell activation in spinal cord and gut wall was associated with the presence of Long COVID symptoms. In addition, tracer uptake in lung tissue was higher in those with persistent pulmonary symptoms. Notably, increased T cell activation in these tissues was also observed in many individuals without Long COVID. Given the high [18F]F-AraG uptake detected in the gut, we obtained colorectal tissue for in situ hybridization SARS-CoV-2 RNA and immunohistochemical studies in a subset of participants with Long COVID symptoms. We identified cellular SARS-CoV-2 RNA in rectosigmoid lamina propria tissue in all these participants, ranging from 158 to 676 days following initial COVID-19 illness, suggesting that tissue viral persistence could be associated with long-term immunological perturbations.
東京都ゲノム解析。EG.5 エリスが最多だが、減少。XBB.1.5が増加続き。https://t.co/ZuOJ3r63Ui https://t.co/Cqigg9sBiz pic.twitter.com/aVDoTEY3mQ
— Takuro⚓️コロナ情報in全国/神奈川/横浜/川崎/東京/大阪/岐阜/広島/宮崎/愛知/静岡 (@triangle24) October 5, 2023
XBB.1.5の増加の中身はGK.1.1がメインで、そろそろGK.1.1新設したほうがいいレベルのスピードですね。
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
そうなんですよね。ま、自治体の中の人の判断ですし、全部細分化されるよりは、系統である程度まとめて貰う方が見る方も楽なんですけど。
covspectrum見てるとGK.1.1系統がそれなりに単なる子供で無くなって父親と同格レベルになってきたので、そろそろかなって僕も思います。
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
XBB.1.5が増加に転じたと聞いて、中身見てきました。 https://t.co/RqwyJ27dQB
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
1枚目、直近6ヶ月のXBB.1.5系統
2枚目、直近6ヶ月のXBB.1.5
3枚目、直近6ヶ月のGK.1.1(XBB.1.5の子供ちゃんの1人)
4枚目、直近6ヶ月のXBB.1.5 vs GK.1.1 pic.twitter.com/0xIsT1oXrX— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
4枚目分かりやすくて、XBB.1.5が日本から退陣し、子供のGK.1.1がお父さんに迫る勢いで幅を聞かせ始めたことが分かりますね。
じゃ、このGK.1.1ぶっちゃけどうよ?
1枚目、世界では?ブラジルがやられていますが、次に代表的な国は日本
2枚目、東京だけ?いいえ、全国に飛び火済み pic.twitter.com/Qj4epyMJwq— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
3枚目、日本での成長優位性が32%。お父さんを抜く可能性、十分に秘めた子ですね。
4枚目、で、どんな子やねん?
お父さんXBB.1.5にシンプルにL455F, F456Lを足した。
シンプルにFLipです。東京都サーベイランスとかそろそろXBB.1.5からGK.1.1*を切り離して表示し直した方がいいと思いますた。終 pic.twitter.com/mopEpUVs1f
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
つまり、
XBB.1.5が増加に転じた→✕
XBB.1.5が退陣し、子供のGK.1.1(FLip)達がやべぇ→○ま、そろそろサーベイランスのグラフ更新しようぜってことで。
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
追記2個目
1枚目、XBB.1.5系統
4枚目、XBB.1.5それ自体 vs GK.1.1*今回の例凄く典型的で、
『順調に下がって行ってたのに突然水平になった』場合
こういう風に『水面下で何かが入れ替わっている』
と考えて良く、それは全体の感染者数vs主流株の関係でも成り立ちます。 pic.twitter.com/s0I5wmbZN0— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
僕のTweetが盛んな時期は、皆さんが阿鼻叫喚し始める時期よりいつも1-2ヶ月ズレてて。
(例えばOmicronなら2021.11月末から僕は騒いでいて、1月頭まで。市井の人々が苦しみ出すのは2022.01月末から)医療従事者が呼びかけTweetを始める頃には、僕はだいたい『もうええや』と黙り始めますw
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
その理由も今回のグラフが分かりやすくて、『水平になった時点で何かが入れ替わっている』
そこを研究者達は見ながら、ヤバいのが来たら騒ぎだす。
それだけです。なので、感染者数について水平にならず、できる限り下がり続けることを皆で祈りましょう。水平怖い。
そこがオチかい。ちゃんちゃん。
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
さて、アイス買いに行く気力が起きなかったのと、今更明日も休みであることに気付いたので涙(忘れてたぜ)、暇潰しに他のも少し中身を見ます。
XBB.2.3*←
『*』はwild card、日本語にするなら『子孫含む』の意味です。じゃあ、XBB.2.3*から見ましょうか pic.twitter.com/XQtS9nANk6
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
1枚目、XBB.2.3*はずっと5-10%
2枚目、XBB.2.3自体は1.5%以下で、半年前から2.3*の主流ではない
3枚目、今2.3*の主流GJ.1.2*でも6月くらいから2-3%と比較的頑張りきれないローカルな循環
4枚目、XBB.2.3 vs GJ.1.2*。うん、2つ合わせても直近6ヶ月グラフに足らないから沢山いそう。 pic.twitter.com/IHp8JWuHZh— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
5枚目、GJ.1.1*も加えると。あぁ、XBB.2.3(パパ)とGJ.1.1*(長男)で、横にだらーっと土台作った上で、夏に次男GJ.1.2*が少しウェッサイして、あんな形になったのかなと。少し全体が見えてくる。
6枚目、GJ.1.2*世界のどこでもこんなもん。
7枚目、GJ.1.2*の優位性10%だけ
8枚目、兄は5%、可哀想に←違 pic.twitter.com/8c2TwWsXYn— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
さて、これじゃあ直近の微増は見えねえね。
9枚目、もうMikeのツールでXBB.2.3*の中身全体像見ようぜ(←最初から使えよ…)
→どうやらGJ.1.2の最近のぶり返し?により上がっただけっぽい
10枚目、GJ.1.2*の中で変な子でもいるの?→いねぇ結論、XBB.2.3*のUpは、上のGK.1.1と違って恐れる必要なし pic.twitter.com/sQnaS1jNPe
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
次は、XBBとだけ書いてある『その他のXBB』は面倒なのでスルーして、BA.2.75をチェックするか。
上昇率はエグいけど、少数循環だからクラスター引っ掛けた時のバラつきに一票。
しっかし、BA.2.75って今更いるわけないし…BNは別建てあるし pic.twitter.com/RdMEAfuekT— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
というわけで
おそらく1枚目と2枚目合わせて、東京都の言うBA.2.75*
縦軸比べれば分かる通り、つまり中身は今やほぼCH.1.1*と考えてok3枚目、ここ半年で見るとCH.1.1(青)はオワコンで子供のFK.1.3.2(緑)が夏に1.5%くらいで循環していた。
で、ここ最近のJump!はどうもバラつきではなく事実で pic.twitter.com/QSkPpoo6jM— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
4%までJL.1がJUMPする。
data bugを期待して、数週間注視だな。このJL.1が東京都ゲノムサーベイランスのBA.2.75*のJUMPの本体と見て間違えなさそう。つまり、結局ひ孫が主体。
んー、もう少し分類Update早めんか?東京都の中の人。 pic.twitter.com/1updDRlJQj
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
さて、唐突にJL.1という不確定要素出てきたので少し確認。
1枚目、日本だけやんけ
2枚目、世界で見て…日本株やんけ
3枚目、成長優位性はまだ17%算出
うん、バラつきやと思って一旦安心しておこう←違 pic.twitter.com/8PCTJrayAy— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
この家族のプロファイル
ひ孫のJL.1、ぶっちゃけS蛋白に限ればE1111Qを獲得しただけ。
え?それでこの覚醒ぶりなん?こわ…
E1111Qとは??? pic.twitter.com/i2CRAiR4iM— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
さて、飽きてきた。
最後にFLip vs BA.2.86 in Japanの今の写真を。1枚目、日本のFLip。このスレのきっかけとなったGK.1.1が今は1位
2枚目、やだねぇ。順調過ぎる増え方
3枚目、世界的にはまた中国。これも気にしとかないと。どうせ日本に来るので。
4枚目、これがビビっただ。東京じゃなくて四国死 pic.twitter.com/4AMYrPh08Y— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
で、
5枚目、FLip vs BA.2.86
まだ開戦前。もうすぐ青コーナー入ってくるぜ、と会場がヒリヒリしてる。
そして、青線が怖いっすね。僕は pic.twitter.com/QR1jYac2Oq— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
僕は気象データをこの時期は重視しますので、北陸甲信越北関東以北では、もう下がらないと考えています。
このことを9月の中旬から予測してきましたが、バッチリ、下水サーベイが下げ止まりの兆候ですね。
天気図を読むベテランですので、寒気団第3波も既に見えています。
— Hiroshi Makita Ph.D. 誰が日本のコロナ禍を悪化させたのか?扶桑社8/18発売中 (@BB45_Colorado) October 8, 2023
ここで下げ止まるのは完全にアウトですよね…
キツいです— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
石川県でこれですからね。
もうどうしようもないでしょう。定点は見事にサチッていましたし。
飽和点が9/29以降、劇的に下がります。感度も更に鈍ります。微分係数で見るしかないですね。https://t.co/S8UVaJLdLo
— Hiroshi Makita Ph.D. 誰が日本のコロナ禍を悪化させたのか?扶桑社8/18発売中 (@BB45_Colorado) October 8, 2023
うわ、今見ましたが、青信号どころか黄色信号にもほぼ戻らずに再増加ですか…
養父も小松も。
であれば、来週定点にこれが反映されるので、全国下げ止まるだろうと。
最悪ですね。— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
来週発表の厚労省定点は、医療費自己負担化でめちゃくちゃになる予定です。
すでに川崎市リアルタイムサーベイがおかしくなっています。
— Hiroshi Makita Ph.D. 誰が日本のコロナ禍を悪化させたのか?扶桑社8/18発売中 (@BB45_Colorado) October 8, 2023
小松市も養父市も、かつてはセミログでしたが、読めない人だらけなので線形にしちゃったんですよね。
仕方ないので頭の中で自動プロットしていますが、セミログでは非常に高水準です。桁が下がっていない。
— Hiroshi Makita Ph.D. 誰が日本のコロナ禍を悪化させたのか?扶桑社8/18発売中 (@BB45_Colorado) October 8, 2023
相模川下水サーベイは、順調に減衰していますが、秋季冬季Surge開始の目安である最低気温を15℃割れを今回の第2波寒波で生じていますので、来週辺りから増加無いし横ばいになる可能性ありとして監視しています。
相模川サーベイは、土日効果の下げがはっきりでるので面白いです。
— Hiroshi Makita Ph.D. 誰が日本のコロナ禍を悪化させたのか?扶桑社8/18発売中 (@BB45_Colorado) October 8, 2023
過去3年間の観測から、
最低気温が15℃を割ると秋季・冬季Surgeが始まる。最初は波状
最低気温が10℃を割り、平均気温が15度を割ると本格的にSurgeが出現する
という経験則をえています。札幌市でこれがバッチリ見えて、小松市、養父市、山梨県が追従していますね。
— Hiroshi Makita Ph.D. 誰が日本のコロナ禍を悪化させたのか?扶桑社8/18発売中 (@BB45_Colorado) October 8, 2023
ああ、自己負担化が入って既に見えにくい定点が更に連続性無くなるのか…
忘れてました。気温は武漢株の頃から外因の中で一番相関する因子ですよね。
ここで下げ止まるとか、日本はどうするんでしょうね。— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
最悪パターン
・ここで下げ止まる
・冬の波は夏以上になる(リアルタイムに見えず後で超過死亡で分かる)
・が、医薬品は最初からの枯渇状態で例年より最悪に
・2-3月、強毒性株だvs医薬品枯渇のせいだで紛糾
・コロナ政策を戻すか?死に続けるか?で紛糾冬に向けてどんな手を政権が打つか?
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
うわ、更にこれですか。
定点報告連続性無くなってしばらくゴミと化すか。https://t.co/02T8Irm9et— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
10月から新規入院患者数の集計対象が「全国約3万8千の医療機関⇒約500の定点医療機関」に変更になりました。これに伴い、前週は7685人だった新規入院患者数が2011人に。
(ICUは181人⇒83人、ECMOは102人⇒35人に) https://t.co/fiw0Yw3BYe
— はな❄️NO WAR (@aoihana1213) October 7, 2023
9月15日の厚労省事務連絡https://t.co/4kG8TgDxns
— はな❄️NO WAR (@aoihana1213) October 7, 2023
一貫した国策
「コロナ見ない化」— Hiroshi Makita Ph.D. 誰が日本のコロナ禍を悪化させたのか?扶桑社8/18発売中 (@BB45_Colorado) October 8, 2023
💡全体がよく減少する中、北海道だけ増加です。例年、秋冬の波は北海道が最初に来ます。去年はちょうど今頃からでした。今日発表のデータは先週と祝日2日ありの先々週の比較なので、倍率は高めに出ますが、北海道のこの兆候は気になるところです https://t.co/wGGeFbWpSr pic.twitter.com/ytFJX1WFwf
— Takuro⚓️コロナ情報in全国/神奈川/横浜/川崎/東京/大阪/岐阜/広島/宮崎/愛知/静岡 (@triangle24) October 6, 2023
北海道さんちょっおまxvzovsyo#**
ちょっと待って欲しいです。もっと濃度が下がってベースライン下がってから冬の波が小さく終わるのが日本人にとって理想だし、夏に感染爆発しててもメディアが呼びかけなかったのもそれ(集団免疫効果)を霞ヶ関中の人が期待したからで。ちょっと早い。 https://t.co/Pm8MNYw1Dc
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
10.43から始めるのはマジでダメです。
定点で20がもう危険⚠と言ったのは今年のまだ7/15
つい最近。ピークアウト傾向と言ってもそもそも10.43は高過ぎるんです。全然高杉君
来週の値見るの怖えけど、下がること祈ろうhttps://t.co/TIsMM1EqSO— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 7, 2023
ちなみにコロラド先生のTweetから下水サーベイランスという確かな先行指標を見ると、下げ止まりがもう確定している様に見えます。
かなりキツいです。https://t.co/xqgQYtjjWU— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
例えば養父市の下水サーベイランス
昔はこんなグラフじゃなかったし、赤信号、黄色信号の基準は既に1回ゴールポストをズラしている。
それでも今年の波は異常値だった。つまり、医療キャパを超える定点に反映されていない隠れ感染者数がめちゃくちゃいるhttps://t.co/zLD4j03Yiu pic.twitter.com/aHAWmDwLjq
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
抗体治療でLongCovidが治った3例の症例報告
これもLongCovidの(少なくとも一部の)本質は、身体に感染が残っているだけ。ということを示唆するだろう。
そしてこの場合、適切な中和抗体薬を選ぶには自分が何株に感染したか?を分かっている必要があるので、シークエンスの重要性高い。 https://t.co/eYzKSunwB5— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
再感染(2回目感染)についてマクロに見ます。
・ワクチン接種率が増えるに従い、2回目感染までの期間は伸びている様に見える
・1回目感染に対して2回目感染は、Omicron以前ではより軽症。Omicronでは「より重症」側へ見える。
・少なくとも死亡に関して言えば、むしろ前回の感染よりリスク高くなる pic.twitter.com/m1oXQDEPet— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
という、米国データさんでした。https://t.co/TpDmVGh8gd
— ramos2 (@ramos262740691) October 8, 2023
◆Influence of Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection on COVID-19 Severity: Evidence from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative【medRxiv 2023年8月3日】
Abstract
Background As SARS-CoV-2 has transitioned from a pandemic to endemic disease, the majority of new infections have been among previously infected individuals. To manage the risks and benefits of ongoing COVID-19 policies, it is important to understand whether prior infection modifies the severity of subsequent infections.
Methods We used data from first and second COVID-19 episodes in the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C), a collection of health systems who provide de-identified electronic health records for research purposes. Our analysis was a sequential series of nested trial emulations. In the first of two analytic stages, we created a month-specific model of the probability of prior infection for each individual. In the second stage, we used an ordinal logistic regression with inverse probability weights calculated in the first stage to simulate a series of monthly trials comparing severity between the cohorts of first and second infections. In addition to cohort-wide effect estimates, we also conducted analyses among race/ethnicity, sex, and age subgroups.
Results From an initial cohort of 7,446,481 combined first and second infections, we identified a cohort of 2,227,484 infections, among which 7.6% were second infections. Ninety-four percent of patients with two recorded infections experienced mild disease for both. The overall odds ratio (OR) for more severe disease with prior infection was 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03 – 1.10). Monthly point estimates of the OR ranged from 0.56 (95% CI: 0.37 – 0.84) in October 2020 to 1.64 (95% CI: 1.33 – 2.00) in February 2023. In most subgroups, the effect of prior infection was significant. In 8 out of 10 subgroups, the maximum monthly OR occurred after the minimum monthly OR, suggesting that protection has waned throughout the pandemic.
Conclusion Overall, prior infection was associated with a significant slightly elevated risk of severe disease. This effect varied month to month. As the pandemic proceeded, the effect of prior infection tended to evolve from generally protective during the pre-Omicron era to unprotective during the Omicron era. This points to the need for continued strategies to avert and minimize the harms of COVID-19, rather than relying upon immunity acquired through previous infection.
Question Does prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 affect the severity of subsequent COVID-19 episodes?
Findings We observed a mild protective effect of prior infection during the early and mid-stages of the pandemic that waned after the rise of the Omicron variants, ultimately resulting in loss of protection or a tendency toward more severe second infections.
Meaning Prior infection alone is likely not enough to avert the worst public health harms of endemic SARS-CoV-2. Interventions to avoid infection and reduce the severity of COVID-19 will still be important in the post-pandemic era.
Introduction
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic’s shift into an endemic disease has necessarily been accompanied by substantial adjustments to public health policy. Policies around recommendations for vaccine boosters, public investment in novel treatments for COVID-19, and reimbursement for telemedicine have already changed or begun to be debated. As of late 2022, an estimated 94% of Americans had experienced at least one episode of COVID-19. Since the majority of new cases have been among people with prior exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, an understanding of how prior infection changes disease severity is vital to making policy decisions informed by reasonable risk-benefit calculations.
One of the hallmarks of an infectious disease’s transition from epidemic to endemic status is a reduction in disease severity due, in part, to an increasing number of the population with some immune protection against the disease. In many cases, this takes place through prior infections. It is therefore reasonable to hypothesize that prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 also confers some protective effect, although some evidence has suggested that the protective effect of natural antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 may decay relatively quickly compared to antibodies against other viruses. Published efforts to understand the severity of repeat COVID-19 episodes have been surprisingly rare. This may have been due in part to the notable challenges of studying repeat infection. Among other challenges, these have included the emergence of several new strains since the start of the pandemic, the introduction of vaccines, and the likely increase in the rate of self-management for COVID-19. Rigorously studying reinfection severity requires both large datasets of comprehensive health information and sophisticated analytic methods.
In this study, we used the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) dataset to conduct an analysis of reinfection severity. The N3C collected deidentified data from 76 health systems covering 18.9 million individuals and 7.5 million COVID-19 cases to provide comprehensive information on a large, diverse swath of patients throughout the United States. We used causal methods with these data to assess the relevance of reinfection to COVID-19 severity both at the population level and across subgroups defined by gender, race/ethnicity, and age.